The Eurogroup rejects the risk of recession but assumes that it must react with more vigor

The Eurogroup rejects the risk of recession but assumes that it must react with more vigor

Moscovici asks the club to accelerate the measures to prop up the common currency «and look for a rebound in the economy already in the second half»

   The Europe of the euro does not want to hear about recession because none of its economies show symptoms that point to that outcome. So «calm» and «cold blood». This suggestion by Pierre Moscovici, Commissioner responsible for Economic Affairs, yesterday marked the first meeting of the Eurogroup that evaluated the growth forecasts that the Community Executive launched last week, much weaker than those of November. In three months of difference, six tenths less rise in the entire eurozone (from 1.9% to 1.3%) for this 2019.

  No alarms. The club flees from the bad omens. The red lights that went on a decade ago, when the last major crisis erupted, will not be activated this year or next. Up to that point it reaches the background of the last 'macro' photograph of Brussels. On what are they based? In two general ideas: Europe grows less, but continues to grow, generates employment and investments do not fall; and "the fundamentals of our economies (which includes the greater robustness of the banking system) are today stronger than before the crisis. In addition, we know exactly what needs to be done to reinforce them ", underlines Mario Centeno, president of the Eurogroup. The Portuguese gives as an example his country and Ireland - both of them under the supervision of the "men in black" after their rescues - of the turn "towards economic and fiscal solidity".

But the concern is undeniable. Because, at the end of the day, the 'big three' of the euro are the ones that show the most marked deceleration. Germany expects a rebound of 1.1% this year (seven tenths less than predicted in the report of the European Commission in November); France has been cut three tenths (from 1.6% to 1.3%); and Italy, which already entered into technical recession last January after accumulating two consecutive quarters in negative, will rise only 0.2%. Spain, the fourth in the ranking is the one that comes out the best: the revision is only one tenth lower and its growth rates are moving above the average (2.1% this year and 1.9% in 2020). ).

"But the slowdown does not imply a threat of recession," says Moscovici. The French commissioner insists again on the need to act to "achieve a rebound effect in the second half of the year and an even better 2020".

At this point, the Eurogroup tackled some keys: the always present uncertainty of the 'brexit' and the need to advance in the architecture of the euro, among others of more national scope. In this sense, Spain and Germany will "lead" the technical working groups to impose the maximum possible pace to the European deposit guarantee system (EDIS) of banks with a reference date: June.

In this Eurogroup, with a much smaller agenda than usual, the Ministers of Economy and Finance agreed by qualified majority to propose the Irish banker Philip Lane as the new chief economist for the European Central Bank (ECB). He was the only candidate to succeed Peter Praet and at the time he played the vice president of the issuing institution to the former Minister of Economy, Luis de Guindos.

On the controversy of the veto of the European Commission to the merger of the French Alstom and the German Siemens, the French Economy Minister, Bruno Le Maire, called for a "strong industrial policy" in the EU that allows global competition, in particular in front of China. He insisted that they will present "within a few weeks" proposals to reform the EU competition rules with "urgency".